With the approach of MacWorld expectations that Apple will release its long-awaited iPhone are running hot, but one market researcher is convinced it won't happen.

In-Stat in a White Paper containing a wide ranging set of predictions on information technology developments in 2007 predicts that: "iPhone hysteria will continue unabated throughout 2007. There will be even more numerous rumours of an iTunes phone from Apple, whipping the faithful into near apoplexy."

Nor does In-Stat hold out great hopes for the success of the 'iPhone' when it eventually appears, saying: "If, by chance, such a device is released, adoring fans will stampede to buy them but the sales spurt will be short-lived, held back by device costs and availability."

The White Paper gave no reason for In-Stat's scepticism, but in a report in BusinessWeek in October 2006, In-Stat analyst Bill Hughes was quoted pointing out that more than half of Americans with music-capable phones also carry MP3 players. "[MP3] is a nice feature to have [on a phone], but people aren't that interested in it," Hughes said, pointing out that the bulk of the iPod's user base is in North America.

BusinessWeek also noted that usage of MP3 capable phones in the US had been slow to take off, with In-Stat forecasting that this trend would continue.

 "As of the second quarter of this year, some 19 percent of all new phones sold in the [US] could play music files, compared with only seven percent in the same period of 2005. [However] only about three percent of buyers actually used the phones to play music, according to various surveys by NPD Group. And studies by In-Stat show that the increase in usage will be slow."

The report quoted an NPD analyst saying these figures suggested that not many people would be willing to plunk down $US250 or more for an iPhone.

ITWire